2026 Marketing Plan · Management Board Review · July 2026
Situation: the approved budget is $117.6M revenue on $38.4M marketing spend, with November–December carrying roughly 40% of the year. Complication: the current plan projects $115.8M — 1.5% short — after a weak June and with tariff-driven pricing still live on the website through Q4. Resolution: that gap is not a demand problem — it hinges on one operational milestone: ramping up US production so tariff pricing can come off the site from August. That single unlock resets Q4 revenue to budget and makes +$300k of August–September media worth $2.10 per $1 — landing the year at 100.6% of budget with cost efficiency flat.
01 · The Answer
US production ramps up in time → tariff pricing comes off the site from August. Two effects follow. Aug–Sep: media converts at $2.10 per $1, so we activate +$150k/month — +$0.6M for $0.3M, spent only if the ramp lands. Oct–Dec: revenue resets to 100% of budget — ≈ +$1.9M at zero cost. The year closes at $118.3M (100.6% of budget), spend $38.7M (+0.7%), CIR flat.
Read left to right: the current plan's $115.8M, then the two effects of tariff pricing coming off the site from August, against the budget line in red.
02 · Why you can believe it
Each argument stands on its own; together they cover the whole gap. The base plan supplies the momentum; the single operational unlock — tariff pricing off the site once US production ramps — supplies the money in two places: the cheapest incremental growth of the year in August–September, and the Q4 revenue reset.
June missed badly (−22% vs budget) before the reshaped plan kicked in. From July, every month of build spend converts: July, August and September all land above budgeted revenue, and the Q4 shortfall then shrinks every single month — −4.8% in October, −3.9% in November, −2.6% in December — while total spend stays flat for the year. The trajectory is already pointing at budget; the levers just finish the job.
October–December currently land at 95–97% of budgeted revenue with tariff-related pricing still live on the website. That is the plan's own coverage math, not a demand forecast problem: once US production is ramped and the pricing comes off, each month resets to 100% of budget, with spend and discount plans untouched. Because Q4 spend is already cut below budget, October and November get more cost-efficient as revenue recovers (CIR −4.3pp and −2.8pp vs budget).
Gray = revenue kept with tariffs on site · orange = recovered when tariffs come off · total ≈ +$1.9M. November matters most in $ because it is the year's second-biggest month ($22.3M budgeted).
The same unlock pays twice. With tariff pricing off the site from August, the last build months convert cleanly: adding $150k in each of August and September — while new demand still has time to convert before peak — returns an estimated $2.10 of revenue per incremental $1. The spend is conditional on the unlock: if the production ramp slips past August, it is not deployed. September's spend simply returns to its budgeted level (from −5.8% to flat), and its CIR still beats budget by 4.5pp.
03 · The plan's shape (for reference)
The base plan moves the same money across H2 in three acts. This is the machinery that produces the recovery in Fact 1 — shown here so the levers above can be judged against how the plan actually works.
| Phase | JUN | JUL | AUG | SEP | OCT | NOV | DEC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ① BUILD — spend up to grow the demand pool | ② HARVEST — spend down, demand converts | ③ GIFT — cut discount | |||||
| Spend vs budget | −17.2% | +19.1% | +11.2% | −5.8% | −10.3% | −8.2% | +13.4% |
| Revenue vs budget | −22.0% | +5.6% | +9.4% | +7.7% | −4.8% | −3.9% | −2.6% |
| CIR vs budget (pp) | +2.1 | +4.1 | +0.6 | −5.0 | −2.5 | −1.5 | +3.0 |
| Discount vs budget (pp) | −5.7 | −2.5 | −0.8 | −3.0 | −0.9 | −0.5 | −5.9 |
04 · Scenarios
Every month of earlier readiness captures more of the gap: ready by August captures both effects; ready by October still captures the Q4 reset; slipping past Q4 leaves the current plan's −1.5% standing. Nothing here is a new structural budget ask.
| Scenario | Revenue (TOV) | vs budget | Spend | vs budget | CIR | vs budget |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Budget (reference) | $117.6M | — | $38.4M | — | 32.6% | — |
| Tariffs stay on all year (current plan) | $115.8M | −1.5% | $38.4M | −0.1% | 33.1% | +0.5pp |
| US production ready by Oct — tariffs off Q4 | $117.7M | +0.1% | $38.4M | −0.1% | 32.6% | −0.05pp |
| US production ready by Aug — tariffs off + mediaTARGET | $118.3M | +0.6% | $38.7M | +0.7% | 32.7% | +0.1pp (flat) |
05 · The dependency
The gating item in this plan is operational, not financial: our ability to ramp up production in the US. As soon as it is ready, tariff-related pricing comes off the site. The earlier that happens, the more of the +$2.5M we capture — ready by August captures all of it; October still captures the $1.9M Q4 reset; past Q4, the current plan's −1.5% stands.
Pre-committed and self-cancelling, not a separate approval: once tariff pricing is off from August, late-summer media converts at $2.10 per $1, and September's total spend simply returns to its budgeted level. If the ramp slips past August, the money is not deployed and the plan reverts to the October scenario.
Appendix · Source data
The full monthly model exactly as it stands today, before any lever in this deck is pulled. Everything above is built on these figures. The highlighted coverage row shows the tariff drag on Q4; every scenario in section 04 starts from here.
| 2026 Plan · $ / % | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BU TOV 2026 | $7,699,979 | $6,432,190 | $7,093,267 | $6,546,142 | $7,375,124 | $7,997,366 | $6,307,464 | $6,374,254 | $6,464,428 | $7,766,970 | $22,305,784 | $25,244,484 |
| BU Total D2C & Limited TOV | $7,615,135 | $6,338,045 | $6,942,181 | $6,359,643 | $7,152,719 | $7,783,769 | $6,048,801 | $6,052,507 | $6,051,419 | $7,269,861 | $21,476,599 | $23,548,175 |
| BU Amazon, Alternative channels Revenue | $84,844 | $94,145 | $151,086 | $186,499 | $222,405 | $213,597 | $258,663 | $321,747 | $413,009 | $497,109 | $829,185 | $1,696,309 |
| BU Spend 2026 | $2,741,954 | $2,463,941 | $2,566,335 | $2,763,281 | $2,804,224 | $2,784,530 | $2,014,698 | $2,152,307 | $2,576,160 | $3,263,422 | $7,600,493 | $4,658,638 |
| Tariff coverage vs. BU (D2C & Ltd) | 94.91% | 95.92% | 97.25% | |||||||||
| TOV 2026 | $7,565,988 | $6,231,543 | $6,927,444 | $6,201,267 | $8,626,559 | $6,239,550 | $6,658,663 | $6,971,747 | $6,963,009 | $7,397,109 | $21,429,185 | $24,596,309 |
| Total D2C & Limited TOV | $7,447,641 | $6,113,443 | $6,718,619 | $6,021,679 | $8,391,704 | $6,052,000 | $6,400,000 | $6,650,000 | $6,550,000 | $6,900,000 | $20,600,000 | $22,900,000 |
| Amazon, Alternative channels Revenue | $118,347 | $118,100 | $208,825 | $179,588 | $234,855 | $213,597 | $258,663 | $321,747 | $413,009 | $497,109 | $829,185 | $1,696,309 |
| Spend 2026 | $2,704,976 | $2,208,741 | $2,590,208 | $2,552,388 | $3,588,897 | $2,306,142 | $2,409,609 | $2,392,561 | $2,427,741 | $2,925,999 | $6,979,266 | $5,282,437 |
| BU Marketing spend Budget | $2,708,275 | $2,425,018 | $2,514,997 | $2,694,136 | $2,722,110 | $2,703,533 | $1,915,089 | $2,043,746 | $2,446,419 | $3,107,423 | $7,341,227 | $4,107,201 |
| BU Marketing Amazon Performance Budget Spend | $22,220 | $24,930 | $28,159 | $31,049 | $34,729 | $37,336 | $45,363 | $40,604 | $43,949 | $48,416 | $95,381 | $257,317 |
| BU Marketing Amazon Fee Budget Spend | $11,459 | $13,973 | $16,930 | $17,792 | $19,352 | $20,599 | $24,064 | $28,859 | $37,788 | $41,802 | $83,436 | $208,514 |
| BU Alternative channels marketing Spend | $0 | $20 | $6,249 | $20,304 | $28,033 | $23,062 | $30,182 | $39,098 | $48,004 | $65,781 | $80,449 | $85,606 |
| Marketing spend | $2,671,297 | $2,169,818 | $2,538,870 | $2,483,243 | $3,506,783 | $2,225,145 | $2,310,000 | $2,284,000 | $2,298,000 | $2,770,000 | $6,720,000 | $4,731,000 |
| BU Plan CIR 2026 | 35.61% | 38.31% | 36.18% | 42.21% | 38.02% | 34.82% | 31.94% | 33.77% | 39.85% | 42.02% | 34.07% | 18.45% |
| CIR 2026 | 35.75% | 35.44% | 37.39% | 41.16% | 41.60% | 36.96% | 36.19% | 34.32% | 34.87% | 39.56% | 32.57% | 21.48% |
| BU to Current Plan CIR delta pp | 2.14 | 4.25 | 0.55 | -4.99 | -2.46 | -1.51 | 3.02 | |||||
| BU Plan Discount Rate 2026 | 23.80% | 23.70% | 25.20% | 26.30% | 28.20% | 27.70% | 24.50% | 22.80% | 25.00% | 24.90% | 33.50% | 27.90% |
| Discount Rate 2026 | 26.00% | 25.20% | 24.50% | 22.00% | 29.03% | 22.00% | 22.00% | 22.00% | 22.00% | 24.00% | 33.00% | 22.00% |
| BU to Current Plan DR delta pp | -5.70 | -2.50 | -0.80 | -3.00 | -0.90 | -0.50 | -5.90 |
Bold divider separates actuals (Jan–May) from the current plan (Jun–Dec). Gray = Budget (BU) reference rows; orange = Amazon & Alternative-channel lines; black = current-plan headline rows. Highlighted row = Q4 tariff coverage vs. budget — the lever this deck removes.
Basis: 2026 Marketing Plan, Budget (BU) vs. Current Plan, all channels blended (D2C & Limited + Amazon + Alternative); CIR = total spend ÷ TOV. Tariff scenario resets Oct–Dec TOV to exactly 100% of BU with spend and discount held at current-plan levels — a ceiling case isolating one lever, not a forecast. Tariff-pricing removal timing is governed by the US production ramp; the Aug–Sep media activation is conditional on tariffs being off from August. Media return of $2.10 per incremental $1 is marketing's estimate from observed build-phase efficiency. Monthly $ figures are derived from the plan sheet; Q4 recovery ≈ $0.4M + $0.9M + $0.6M ≈ $1.9M. D2C & Limited-only coverage for Oct–Dec with tariffs on: 94.9% / 95.9% / 97.25% of BU. Full working model with all monthly charts: plan-2026.pages.dev.