2026 Marketing Plan · Management Board Review · July 2026
Situation: the approved budget is $117.6M revenue on $38.4M marketing spend, with November–December carrying roughly 40% of the year. Complication: the current plan projects $115.8M — 1.5% short — after a weak June and with tariff-driven pricing still live on the website through Q4. Resolution: that gap is not a demand problem — it hinges on one operational milestone: ramping up US production so tariff pricing can come off the site from August. That single unlock resets Q4 revenue to budget and makes +$300k of August–September media worth $2.10 per $1 — landing the year at 100.6% of budget with cost efficiency flat.
01 · The Answer
US production ramps up in time → tariff pricing comes off the site from August. Two effects follow. Aug–Sep: media converts at $2.10 per $1, so we activate +$150k/month — +$0.6M for $0.3M, spent only if the ramp lands. Oct–Dec: revenue resets to 100% of budget — ≈ +$1.9M at zero cost. The year closes at $118.3M (100.6% of budget), spend $38.7M (+0.7%), CIR flat.
Read left to right: the current plan's $115.8M, then the two effects of tariff pricing coming off the site from August, against the budget line in red.
02 · Why you can believe it
Each argument stands on its own; together they cover the whole gap. The base plan supplies the momentum; the single operational unlock — tariff pricing off the site once US production ramps — supplies the money in two places: the cheapest incremental growth of the year in August–September, and the Q4 revenue reset.
June missed badly (−22% vs budget) before the reshaped plan kicked in. From July, every month of build spend converts: July, August and September all land above budgeted revenue, and the Q4 shortfall then shrinks every single month — −4.8% in October, −3.9% in November, −2.6% in December — while total spend stays flat for the year. The trajectory is already pointing at budget; the levers just finish the job.
October–December currently land at 95–97% of budgeted revenue with tariff-related pricing still live on the website. That is the plan's own coverage math, not a demand forecast problem: once US production is ramped and the pricing comes off, each month resets to 100% of budget, with spend and discount plans untouched. Because Q4 spend is already cut below budget, October and November get more cost-efficient as revenue recovers (CIR −4.3pp and −2.8pp vs budget).
Gray = revenue kept with tariffs on site · orange = recovered when tariffs come off · total ≈ +$1.9M. November matters most in $ because it is the year's second-biggest month ($22.3M budgeted).
The same unlock pays twice. With tariff pricing off the site from August, the last build months convert cleanly: adding $150k in each of August and September — while new demand still has time to convert before peak — returns an estimated $2.10 of revenue per incremental $1. The spend is conditional on the unlock: if the production ramp slips past August, it is not deployed. September's spend simply returns to its budgeted level (from −5.8% to flat), and its CIR still beats budget by 4.5pp.
03 · The plan's shape (for reference)
The base plan moves the same money across H2 in three acts. This is the machinery that produces the recovery in Fact 1 — shown here so the levers above can be judged against how the plan actually works.
| Phase | JUN | JUL | AUG | SEP | OCT | NOV | DEC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ① BUILD — spend up to grow the demand pool | ② HARVEST — spend down, demand converts | ③ GIFT — cut discount | |||||
| Spend vs budget | −17.2% | +19.1% | +11.2% | −5.8% | −10.3% | −8.2% | +13.4% |
| Revenue vs budget | −22.0% | +5.6% | +9.4% | +7.7% | −4.8% | −3.9% | −2.6% |
| CIR vs budget (pp) | +2.1 | +4.1 | +0.6 | −5.0 | −2.5 | −1.5 | +3.0 |
| Discount vs budget (pp) | −5.7 | −2.5 | −0.8 | −3.0 | −0.9 | −0.5 | −5.9 |
04 · Scenarios
Every month of earlier readiness captures more of the gap: ready by August captures both effects; ready by October still captures the Q4 reset; slipping past Q4 leaves the current plan's −1.5% standing. Nothing here is a new structural budget ask.
| Scenario | Revenue (TOV) | vs budget | Spend | vs budget | CIR | vs budget |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Budget (reference) | $117.6M | — | $38.4M | — | 32.6% | — |
| Tariffs stay on all year (current plan) | $115.8M | −1.5% | $38.4M | −0.1% | 33.1% | +0.5pp |
| US production ready by Oct — tariffs off Q4 | $117.7M | +0.1% | $38.4M | −0.1% | 32.6% | −0.05pp |
| US production ready by Aug — tariffs off + mediaTARGET | $118.3M | +0.6% | $38.7M | +0.7% | 32.7% | +0.1pp (flat) |
05 · The dependency
The gating item in this plan is operational, not financial: our ability to ramp up production in the US. As soon as it is ready, tariff-related pricing comes off the site. The earlier that happens, the more of the +$2.5M we capture — ready by August captures all of it; October still captures the $1.9M Q4 reset; past Q4, the current plan's −1.5% stands.
Pre-committed and self-cancelling, not a separate approval: once tariff pricing is off from August, late-summer media converts at $2.10 per $1, and September's total spend simply returns to its budgeted level. If the ramp slips past August, the money is not deployed and the plan reverts to the October scenario.
Basis: 2026 Marketing Plan, Budget (BU) vs. Current Plan, all channels blended (D2C & Limited + Amazon + Alternative); CIR = total spend ÷ TOV. Tariff scenario resets Oct–Dec TOV to exactly 100% of BU with spend and discount held at current-plan levels — a ceiling case isolating one lever, not a forecast. Tariff-pricing removal timing is governed by the US production ramp; the Aug–Sep media activation is conditional on tariffs being off from August. Media return of $2.10 per incremental $1 is marketing's estimate from observed build-phase efficiency. Monthly $ figures are derived from the plan sheet; Q4 recovery ≈ $0.4M + $0.9M + $0.6M ≈ $1.9M. D2C & Limited-only coverage for Oct–Dec with tariffs on: 94.9% / 95.9% / 97.25% of BU. Full working model with all monthly charts: plan-2026.pages.dev.